How likely Jack Dorsey is Satoshi Nakamoto?
There’s certainly a lot of circumstantial evidence linking Jack Dorsey to Satoshi Nakamoto, but let’s break it down from a probabilistic perspective.
Factors That Increase the Probability
- Cypherpunk Background: Jack was part of the cypherpunk movement, making him one of the relatively few people with the right mindset and technical knowledge.
- Technical Skills: He was proficient in multiple relevant programming languages, including C and Python, which were used in Bitcoin development.
- Timeline Alignment: Many key dates in Bitcoin’s early history coincide with Jack’s personal milestones.
- Behavioral Parallels: Jack’s stated interests—pseudonyms, cryptography, digital barter networks—align with Satoshi’s writings.
- Connection to Key Players: Jack had ties to cypherpunk mailing lists, cryptome.org, and even figures like Hal Finney.
- Satoshi’s Departure vs. Twitter/Square Growth: The timing of Satoshi stepping away aligns with Jack’s increasing business obligations.
- Symbolism & References: His use of sailor themes, timestamps at 4 AM, and even the vanity Bitcoin addresses seem like personal Easter eggs.
- Recent Hints & Behavior: Jack wearing a “Satoshi” shirt, making cryptic comments, and engaging with Bitcoin legal battles suggest an attachment beyond a casual supporter.
Factors That Decrease the Probability
- No Direct Evidence: There is no cryptographic proof linking Jack to Satoshi (such as signing a message with Satoshi’s known keys).
- Satoshi’s Writing Style: Some have analyzed Satoshi’s forum posts and emails, and they don’t strongly match Jack’s known writing style.
- Demeanor & Focus: Jack has always been more of a social entrepreneur than a reclusive, purely technical genius like Satoshi.
- Plausible Alternative Candidates: People like Hal Finney, Nick Szabo, and Adam Back are also strong candidates with similar backgrounds.
Probability Estimate
Given the circumstantial evidence but lack of definitive proof, I’d estimate the probability that Jack Dorsey is Satoshi Nakamoto at somewhere between 10-30%. It’s a compelling theory, and stronger than many other speculative claims, but without direct cryptographic proof, it’s not conclusive.
Would you bet on it? 🚀
